The 2013/09/05 at 12:21
C.I. Extremely positive forecasts for growth in 2013 were announced this week. What figures should entrepreneurs bear in mind?
H.B.: We have estimated the real GDP for eight major countries (editorial note: real GDP is a measurement of the gross domestic product based on the variation in the volume of the GDP from one reference period to another). This is an intermediary exercise that we carry out twice a year.
This is how we arrived at the result of 0.3 % growth in the GDP in 2013 (compared to 2012).
C.I. To what do we owe this good news?
H.B.: The result is calculated from data from the first two quarters. In the second quarter, France underwent GDP growth of 0.5 % compared with the first quarter. This was the first time that we recorded growth of more than 0.2 % since the first quarter of 2011 when France underwent a 1.1 % rise in GDP.
We can also observe an improvement in the international macroeconomic context that is beneficial to France and to exporter companies in particular.
Out of this 0.5 %, 0.3 % can be accounted for by our equations, namely relating to consumption and industrial production figures. The budgetary clean-up approach followed by the government has been reassuring, enabling very low financing rates. The Credit d'impôt pour la Compétitivité et l’Emploi (CICE or Competitiveness and Employment Tax Break) is going to bear fruit.
But there is no explanation for 0.2 out of the 0.5 points.
C.I. This recovery is also visible in your growth forecasts regarding the United States, Germany, Great Britain, Japan, Canada and China of course. So is the world getting out of the crisis?
Be careful, it’s premature to think that the crisis is behind us today. Italy, another country for which we provide 2013 forecasts, remains in recession. But it’s true that the eight major countries are globally faring better. The improvement is substantial compared to what we forecasted in spring. In France, things are starting up again gently, but it’s necessary to remain prudent as uncertainty is still high.
C.I. What can be done to avoid falling back in recession today?
The government needs to deliver a policy that brings confidence back to enterprises, households and investors. It is crucial that entrepreneurs invest so that we can definitively exit the recession.
Clearly, we do not foresee falling back into the negative zone. To get new negative figures, there would need to be a very strong upset once again, for example bad surprises in the banking zone in Eurozone countries, a nuclear catastrophe, a rise in geopolitical risks provoking a long-term soar in petrol prices…