The 2012/01/25 at 06:50
Parallel to its analysis on long-term prospects (1), the report published this month by the Centre d'Analyse Stratégique (CAS or Centre for Strategic Analysis) on job-creating sectors in France for the 2011-2016 period(2) presents a favourable outlook for sectors “sheltered from” foreign competition. In this way, services for businesses, personal or collective-use services, as well as intermediary services are expected to notch up 944,000 job creations over the 2011-2016 period. While services related to the elderly are also to create jobs in Germany in coming years due to the ageing of the population, “Germany has better anticipated than France this growth of the elderly population and has long invested in training staff to provide services for seniors,” explains Isabelle Bourgeois, Researcher at the CIRAC(3), tempering uncertainties that exist on the financing of these services.
Generally, in Germany, vocational training is more in sync with real needs. In this way, 40% of Germans take part in apprenticeships, and bridges between technical and “intellectual” training are not at all closed off. “In Germany, training aims at teaching not only the execution of tasks but also anticipation and skills development thanks to lifelong training programmes usually offered on production sites,” explains Isabelle Bourgeois. Companies are thus fully involved in defining and elaborating training programmes.
“Germany has an on-the-ground approach, unlike France where an administrative logic dominates,” observes Isabelle Bourgeois who highlights the role that could be played by Chambers of commerce, genuine “links between business needs and initial and continuing education programmes to be offered”. In addition, while France often adopts a defensive attitude to foreign competition, “Germany sees Europe as a space for mobility and has a better knowledge of how to anticipate social and economic evolutions,” notes Isabelle Bourgeois. In this way, unlike France that has felt the brunt of Chinese competition in certain sectors such as electronics or textiles since China’s joining of the WTO in 2004, Germany has managed to prepare itself by backing extreme hi-tech products. This strategy seems to be confirmed by the CAS report. According to the CAS, technological and upper-end sectors will be job creators over the 2011-2016 period.
(1) Centre d’Information et de Recherche sur l’Allemagne (Information and Research Centre on Contemporary Germany). Isabelle Bourgeois is also Head Editor of the journal Regards sur l'économie allemande.
(2) CAS memo n° 259 on sectors of new growth in 2030.
(3) CAS memo n° 258 on mid-term job-creating sectors, published in January 2012.
Centre d’Analyse Stratégique report on employment: